Will Apple have a significant change in business practices due the United States v. Apple trial?
TechOne-Off2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 73%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Mar 26, 24, 7:57 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This will resolve yes if Apple makes a significant change to its policies as a result of the trial, whether it is due to a settlement or court ruling in the government's favor.
- The change can be to (but not limited to) its: app store policies, third-party messaging integrations or Apple Watch apps policy.
- I will make the subjective decision on what is considered "significant".
- As an example, allowing third party app stores to be downloaded from the App Store would resolve YES, reducing the App Store digital payment fee from 30% to 27% would resolve NO.
- Here is the Stratechery overview of the case.
- Update 2025-12-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will be extended beyond the current close date of January 2, 2026 if needed to determine resolution.
