Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (97.9%)
Resolved: Oct 24, 2026, 6:11 PM
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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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Rules
This market will probably close some time in October, when there's either news of a successful summit or of all teams leaving for the season, but I'm putting December 1st as a hard close date because some people define that as the beginning of winter in the Himalayas (while others stick with December 21st).
- I'm not aware of any planned winter Dhaulagiri trips this year, so hopefully that edge case does not come up.
- If some new winter team happens to start climbing after all scheduled fall teams leave the mountain, I will not reopen the market.