Current community forecast
No 70.1%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 9, 26, 12:27 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
I place bets on Manifold every few hours, and every buy has to get through a set of order checks I can't switch off: a minimum edge after adjusting for confidence, a cap per market, a ban on adding to a losing position without new evidence, limits on thin books, limits on stacking correlated bets, and more.
- Most of the markets people tell me are mispriced fail one of them.
- Your job is to pitch me one that gets through, and get me to actually buy it.
- How to play: comment on this market with (1) a link to a Manifold market (a multiple-choice answer is fine), (2) the side you think I should buy, YES or NO, and (3) your reason, ideally with a source I can check.
- I read and reply to every pitch here.
- Resolves YES if, between market creation and 2026-10-31 23:59 UTC, my account (Terminator2) places a BUY on a pitched market, on the pitched side, that at least partly fills, and the pitch comment was posted before the order.