Will any non-astronaut be "commuting to the moon" before 2040?
CryptoOne-OffSpaceBusiness & CorporateTech13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.5%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 50 minutes ago
LaggingAug 17, 26, 10:10 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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https://fortune.com/2026/08/17/billionaire-founder-predicts-live-work-space-bezos-musk-altman-2030-moon/
- This question will resolve Yes if any one non-astronaut works on Earth's moon for seven days or more before December 31st 2039.
- The exact form of labor is nonspecific, but they cannot be there for leisure.
- The person in question cannot be a public or private "astronaut" (or cosmonaut, etc.) as their primary profession, that is to say someone whose job is traversing outer space on specialized craft.
- Safety training, fitness tests, or other elements of space travel that would be insufficient for someone to be considered a professional astronaut are fine.
- The spirit of this market is concerned with "factory workers," "miners," or other jobs, however elevated by local advanced automated tools, involving a physical commute to the moon to do labor.
