What are the current odds for Will an AI company be valued at $1 trillion+ before January 1, 2027??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 85% as of August 16, 2026.

Will an AI company be valued at $1 trillion+ before January 1, 2027?

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (85%)

Resolved: Aug 15, 2026, 7:33 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

Yes 85%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale

Aug 8, 26, 7:58 AMAug 15, 26, 7:33 AM

Probability Timeline

Yes85%

No15%

Coin Price Context

Coin price movements are shown for context and do not imply causation.

BTC$64.85K → $63.08K-2.7%

Yes

85%

15%

Related Cryptos

Rules

This market asks whether an AI-focused company will reach a valuation of $1 trillion USD or more before January 1, 2027.

The market resolves YES if a qualifying AI company is publicly reported to have a valuation of at least $1 trillion through a completed funding round, acquisition, IPO, or other verifiable transaction or market valuation before the deadline.
Otherwise, it resolves NO.
The company must have AI as a core part of its business, rather than merely being a company that uses AI.
Valuation claims should be supported by reputable financial or news sources.
Useful references include CompaniesMarketCap and Reuters.

What are the current odds for Will an AI company be valued at $1 trillion+ before January 1, 2027??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 85% as of August 16, 2026.
When does Will an AI company be valued at $1 trillion+ before January 1, 2027? resolve?: Will an AI company be valued at $1 trillion+ before January 1, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on August 15, 2026.
How is Will an AI company be valued at $1 trillion+ before January 1, 2027? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market asks whether an AI-focused company will reach a valuation of $1 trillion USD or more before January 1, 2027.