Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?
SportsOne-OffSociety & CultureSoccer3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 74.8%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMay 31, 24, 11:07 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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It still seems like a long way away... but if you'd asked me in 2010 if I expected this to happen by 2020, I'd have been optimistic.
- Will this milestone happen in this decade?
- For this to resolve yes, the player must come out of their own accord, either in a planned statement or in a spontaneous way (but not through a leak by a third party or something like that). "Active" player means being part of the squad of a 1.
- Bundesliga team, even if the player doesn't get any minutes of playing time in that season.
- They must have played in a Bundesliga game before though.
- If there's any ambiguity about the player coming out as "homosexual / bi / queer", I'll judge this based on the general consensus in the media.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030? resolve?
- Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: It still seems like a long way away... but if you'd asked me in 2010 if I expected this to happen by 2020, I'd have been optimistic.