What are the current odds for Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52.4% as of October 29, 2026.

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

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Current community forecast

Yes 52.4%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Forecast

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Updated 14 hours ago

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Aug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC

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This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO).

It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human".
In fact, it's carefully constructed to be a proxy for AGI.
Experts who know all the bot's weaknesses get to grill it for hours.
Kurzweil and Kapor agree that LLMs as of 2023 don't and can't pass this Turing test.
Personally I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose -- that a computer will not pass this version of the Turing test this decade.