Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

CardanoOne-Off1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 74.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Stale

Jan 27, 26, 8:31 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC

Outcome24hChance

Rules

As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
The market was initialized to 14%.

Open markets

Cardano

KALSHI

Which cryptocurrencies will the Treasury purchase during Trump's term?

Bitcoin+4.0ptStored 24h historyStored bid–ask9%–16%Collected: Oct 10, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
CardanoStored bid–ask0%–7%Collected: Oct 10, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC
Ethereum-5.0ptStored 24h historyStored bid–ask2%–10%Collected: Oct 10, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC

+4 more outcomes

Total Vol: $3.7K
24h Vol: $609.9

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Charles Hoskinson (co-founder of Cardano and Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

No89.4%
Yes10.6%

Total Vol: $682.7
24h Vol: —

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Between $10 billion and $50 billion48.5%
Between $1 billion and $10 billion17.8%
Between $50 billion and $100 billion14%

+3 more outcomes

Total Vol: $256

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??: Manifold Markets prices No at 74.8% as of October 10, 2026.
When does Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?: Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
How is Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

https://api.coinrithm.com/api/prediction-markets/events/manifold/will-ada-palmer-inventing-the-renai

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Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Open markets

Which cryptocurrencies will the Treasury purchase during Trump's term?

Will Charles Hoskinson (co-founder of Cardano and Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Related Cryptos

Frequently asked questions

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Open markets

Which cryptocurrencies will the Treasury purchase during Trump's term?

Will Charles Hoskinson (co-founder of Cardano and Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?