What are the current odds for Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 69.1% as of October 26, 2026.

Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 69.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Stale

Jul 9, 23, 6:14 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Will any credible source report a purchase power agreement (PPA) of <$10/MWh for a >5 MW solar energy installation?

The lowest currently reported price I am aware of is ~$20/MWh.
PPAs specified as <5 years in duration will not count for this market to resolve.
A PPA of unspecified duration will be assumed sufficient for resolution, since PPAs are typically for terms of >10 years.