Will a top-20 Super Bowl advertiser air a primarily AI-generated commercial during Super Bowl LXI (Feb 2027)?
SportsOne-OffTechAmerican FootballAI5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.8%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 17, 26, 9:34 PM UTCMar 5, 27, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
🏈Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LXI in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho will headline the 2027 Super Bowl Halftime Show?
Manifold MarketsWill Kanye perform in the 2027 Super Bowl halftime show?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiWhich AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill the Seattle Seahawks or Los Angeles Rams win 2027 Super Bowl?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES if any brand ranked in the top 20 Super Bowl advertisers by ad spend airs a commercial during Super Bowl LXI (scheduled for February 2027) where the majority of the visual content was generated by AI.
- What counts as primarily AI-generated:
- More than 50% of the visual frames/shots were created using AI image or video generation tools (Sora, Runway, Pika, Kling, etc.)
- The advertiser or their agency publicly states the ad was primarily AI-generated
- Credible industry reporting (Ad Age, AdWeek, WSJ) confirms AI generation was the primary production method
Open markets
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Total Vol
- $14.2M
- 24h Vol
- $13.1M
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27.9M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Total Vol
- $18.1K
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28M
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Total Vol
- $2.5M
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a top-20 Super Bowl advertiser air a primarily AI-generated commercial during Super Bowl LXI (Feb 2027)??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a top-20 Super Bowl advertiser air a primarily AI-generated commercial during Super Bowl LXI (Feb 2027)? resolve?
- Will a top-20 Super Bowl advertiser air a primarily AI-generated commercial during Super Bowl LXI (Feb 2027)? is scheduled to resolve on March 5, 2027.
- How is Will a top-20 Super Bowl advertiser air a primarily AI-generated commercial during Super Bowl LXI (Feb 2027)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria