Current community forecast
No 85.3%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 23, 7:22 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 12:01 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
In 1994 Peter Shor developed a quantum algorithm for finding the prime factors of an integer; on a quantum computer it runs in polylogarithmic time, which is almost an exponential speed-up over the fastest classical algorithms.
- Major cryptosystems rely on the relative difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes.
- Large quantum computers could utilise the algorithm to pose a major threat to these systems.
- This market will resolve YES if any major cryptosystem is broken using a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm by 2030; else, it will resolve NO.
