What are the current odds for Will a human walk on Mars before 2041??

Manifold Markets prices No at 61.1% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will a human walk on Mars before 2041? resolve?

Will a human walk on Mars before 2041? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2041.

How is Will a human walk on Mars before 2041? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of Mars before January 1st 2041.

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Will a human walk on Mars before 2041?

WeatherOne-Off14y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 61.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Jan 4, 24, 5:45 PM UTCMar 1, 41, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Rules

Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of Mars before January 1st 2041.

Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-cbd9e461335b
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-f591cd57e406
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-df3792742b47

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Will a human walk on Mars before 2041?

Will a human walk on Mars before 2041?

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Frequently asked questions

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Open markets

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 28, 2026?

Where will it rain on Oct 29, 2026?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 29?

Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 29?

Highest temperature in Wellington on October 29?

Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 29?