Will a human walk on Mars before we discover a room temperature superconductor like LK-99?
WeatherDaily6y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 70.2%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMay 7, 24, 4:55 AM UTCJan 1, 33, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRules
Walking on Mars as defined by societal consensus
- Sueprconductor as defined by at the same conditions as the LK-99 market, but for any material. and/or general scientific community consensus
- Market open until one happens
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes96%
- No4%
- Total Vol
- $125.8K
- 24h Vol
- $125.8K
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
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- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a human walk on Mars before we discover a room temperature superconductor like LK-99??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a human walk on Mars before we discover a room temperature superconductor like LK-99? resolve?
- Will a human walk on Mars before we discover a room temperature superconductor like LK-99? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.
- How is Will a human walk on Mars before we discover a room temperature superconductor like LK-99? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Walking on Mars as defined by societal consensus