Will a hardware 3 tesla vehicle get an official hardware FSD upgrade by the end of 2026?
TechOne-Off3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 87.8%
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5
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 7 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 25, 9:08 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
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Specifically, will Tesla upgrade any customer's car (not tesla employee/testing car) initially produced with a hardware 3 FSD computer to be able to run either unsupervised FSD, or the same-or-better model as what hardware 4 cars are running at that time?
- I would guess that Tesla will not do this until unsupervised is already solved, but if Tesla upgrades the hardware to have full parity with hw4 but hasn't solved unsupervised on hw4 yet this will resolve yes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a hardware 3 tesla vehicle get an official hardware FSD upgrade by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a hardware 3 tesla vehicle get an official hardware FSD upgrade by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will a hardware 3 tesla vehicle get an official hardware FSD upgrade by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will a hardware 3 tesla vehicle get an official hardware FSD upgrade by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Specifically, will Tesla upgrade any customer's car (not tesla employee/testing car) initially produced with a hardware 3 FSD computer to be able to run either unsupervised FSD, or the same-or-better model as what hardware 4 cars are running at that time?