What are the current odds for Will a comic book person win the nobel prize for literature before 2043??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 50.5% as of October 25, 2026.

Will a comic book person win the nobel prize for literature before 2043?

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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:28 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 50.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Nov 25, 25, 8:22 AM UTCDec 31, 42, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.