What are the current odds for Will a California State entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??

Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of October 28, 2026.

Will a California State entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 92%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 20 minutes ago

Jan 31, 23, 6:42 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

The account cannot be owned by a person who works for the state of California - the government entity itself must own it.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.