Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, *including* crypto or inheritance?
CryptoOne-OffInflationBusiness & Corporate4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 84%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleDec 10, 22, 1:36 PM UTCFeb 28, 31, 5:00 AM UTC
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Rules
This is a copy of another bet, but with more (that was 1 this is 10) and this included crypto and inheritance.
- Linchuan Zhang and Joel Becker recently bet on this.
- The full operationalization of their bet is as follows (which Natália Mendonça got from https://twitter.com/joel_bkr/status/1495097579369119748?s=21): ————— Linch 1:14 PM Proposed bet operationalization: "a person who had <100M at the time they a) became an EA and b) as of Feb 28 2021, would at any point before February 28 2031 have >$1B USD.
- Where EA is defined as "either a) public self-identification as EA, b) signing the Giving What Can pledge or c) taking the EA survey and being a 4 or 5 on the engagement axis , and $ as "in inflation-adjusted 2021 dollars.'" Note that this operationalization would include people who are not EAs today, but would include people who become EAs in the next 10 years as long as they had <$100M.
