Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Spain (57.9%)
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, 10:30 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 20, 2026, 4:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Probability Timeline
England19.5%
Spain57.9%
France40.1%
Italy0.2%
Germany3%
Brazil6.7%
Argentina40.1%
Portugal6.6%
USA3.2%
Australia0.3%
Netherlands1%
Belgium1%
Greece0.6%
Macedonia0.3%
Canada1%
Croatia0.9%
Other6.5%
SpainWon
ArgentinaLost
CroatiaLost
OtherLost
CanadaLost
EnglandLost
FranceLost
AustraliaLost
NetherlandsLost
BelgiumLost
GreeceLost
MacedoniaLost
ItalyLost
GermanyLost
BrazilLost
PortugalLost
USALost
Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
