Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 10:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
USA 17.8%Leader of 16 outcomes
USA 17.8%Forecasters
28
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 24, 7:19 AM UTCFeb 19, 32, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a non-European or non-South American country win the FIFA world cup by 2034 (inclusive)?
Manifold MarketsWhich team will win the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
Manifold MarketsWill the Netherlands men's football (soccer) team win the FIFA world cup before the end of 2042?
Manifold MarketsWhich team will win the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
Manifold Markets2030 FIFA World Cup Champion
Kalshi2027 FIFA Women's World Cup Champion
KalshiRules
All previous World Cup winners have been from Europe or South America.
- This will keep extending until a team that is not European or South American wins.
- Currently listing the top ten teams from the Men's Coca Cola rankings as options.
- Related market: https://manifold.markets/m2/will-a-noneuropean-or-nonsouth-amer
