Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Spain (99.3%)
Resolved: Jul 22, 2026, 10:58 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 20, 2026, 4:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Probability Timeline
Argentina0.1%
Brazil6.1%
France37.9%
Germany3.6%
Spain99.3%
England22.9%
Italy0.5%
Netherlands5%
Portugal5.9%
Belgium2.3%
Mexico2.1%
United States2.2%
Japan0.3%
South Korea0.3%
Uruguay0.7%
Colombia2.7%
Chile0.1%
Croatia1%
Denmark0.1%
Switzerland0.2%
Norway5.4%
Austria0.9%
Serbia0.1%
Morocco2%
Senegal0.5%
Canada0.1%
Sweden0.1%
Egypt0.1%
Nigeria0.1%
Ghana0.1%
Ecuador0.2%
Turkey0.4%
Poland0.1%
Paraguay0.2%
Cameroon0.1%
Venezuela0.1%
Ukraine0.1%
Australia0.3%
Greece0.1%
Peru0.1%
Other0.6%
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Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
