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| # | Name | Price | 1h % | 24h % | 7d % | Market Cap | Volume(24h) | Circulating Supply | Last 7 Days |
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IRON MEN: Which 6 of these 10 politicians will keep power longer? The next four "out" go to 0%, remaining six go to 100%
2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCAlerts
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Forecast context
Current community forecast
Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935 25.8%
Forecasters
34
Question type
multiple choice
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleLast updated: Apr 12, 9:46 PM
Resolves
Feb 2, 2029, 7:59 AM
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-
Started Jan 8, 2025, 5:27 PMEnds Feb 2, 2029, 7:59 AM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Rules
All the options are priced separately. For traders who aren't familiar: if we knew the exact future, the total of all options would sum to 600% (proper pricing would be: the 6 survivors will be 100% each and the 6 to be out first will be 0%).
- As these guys lose power, the first 6 to lose power (by any means, retirement, leaving office, etc) will have their price resolved to 0%. When there are only 6 left, the remaining ones will have their price resolved to 100%.
- Note that to lose power they have to really have stepped down from their current job (or taken a less significant, same country job), not just lost an election which entails losing power at a future point. i.e. if there is a gap then they aren't "out" until they actually don't have the power. Quitting being president and then moving on to being an ambassador or head of supreme court while someone else takes over the big job is considered being "out".
- For medical issues, (if the day-to-day operations of the country are handed to someone else for at least 7 days, or the leader has disappeared for at least 30 days), and there is clear indication & belief by the economist magazine that the person is dead or gone, then they will be considered "out".
- Note: Trump is considered to be the US president now, even though he's not quite inaugurated yet, for the purpose of deciding this market. i.e. if he fails to be inaugurated or is, but then stops being president, he'll be "out".
- Note, that losing power but then being reinstated >7 days later either by coup or reelection or other, still means you were "out".
Topics
PoliticsAIGeopolitics
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