Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Before 2033 77.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Before 2033 77.6%Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleDec 24, 25, 8:58 AM UTCJan 1, 34, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Level 5 self driving cars be available by (YEAR)?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?
Manifold MarketsOnce level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
The impetus for this market is asking whether Elon Musk is correct in rejecting lidar sensors for self-driving.
- Did the Tesla robotaxis in Austin in summer 2025 count?
- No, even if we decide those were level 4, we need wider deployment (see next FAQ item) than that to count for this market.
- How wide is "widely deployed"?
- 100 million autonomous miles, with zero fatalities that are the fault of the AI.
- Is this specific to Tesla?
