Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastBefore 2040 83.5%+33.5ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+33.5 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleOct 24, 26, 5:10 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves according to the date when the first general public stable channel release of either upstream Chromium or Mozilla Firefox is officially published that completely drops the ability to run natively under the X Window System on Linux.
- This means that standard release builds can no longer run as an X11 client natively (e.g., removing the X11 backend.
- I'm referring to a loose idea of "standard, upstream, stable channel, release build" in that, e.g. distro packages patching in support don't count, beta versions don't count, etc. "Locked behind a non-default runtime option" doesn't count as not supporting X11, "locked behind a non-default compile-time option" counts as not supporting X11.