Current community forecast
2027 30.2%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
48
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 28, 23, 6:29 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Magnus Carlsen be dethroned from his #1 spot in FIDE rating before GTA 6 is released?
Manifold MarketsWill Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHikaru Nakamura and Magnus Carlsen play world-championship-style classical match before 2030
Manifold MarketsFIDE Standard Top Women Chess Players: Top 10 Rated in November 2026
KalshiFIDE Standard Top Women Chess Players: Top 10 Rated in December 2026
KalshiFIDE Standard Top Women Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in November 2026
KalshiRules
They have to surpass Magnus on the list for at least 30 days.
- http://ratings.fide.com/
- Update June 30 2026: this is the proper link now: https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml?list=open for tracking this market - the open rating.
- If Magnus is not in the list then he is surpassed, as long as the list still exists.
- The list appears to be updated very frequently.
- No end date.
Open markets
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Total Vol
- $14.2M
- 24h Vol
- $13.1M
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27.9M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Total Vol
- $18.1K
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28M
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Total Vol
- $2.5M
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What year will someone surpass Magnus Carlsen on the list of Top Rated FIDE players??
- Manifold Markets prices 2027 at 30% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What year will someone surpass Magnus Carlsen on the list of Top Rated FIDE players? resolve?
- What year will someone surpass Magnus Carlsen on the list of Top Rated FIDE players? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is What year will someone surpass Magnus Carlsen on the list of Top Rated FIDE players? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: They have to surpass Magnus on the list for at least 30 days.