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What will happen before 2050? (Mega market)

What will happen before 2050? (Mega market)

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 15, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3

Current community forecast

Mana gets devalued (compared to USD) again (donation rate used 1000M:0.95USD).

Mana gets devalued (compared to USD) again (donation rate used 1000M:0.95USD). 100%

Leader of 41 outcomes

Forecasters

37

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 days ago

Stale

Jul 19, 24, 12:11 PMJan 1, 50, 10:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Manifold shuts down.8%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Feel free to add answers!

If you don't want to add an answer because of the cost, suggest an answer in the comments and I'll tip you 5 mana/trader on your question (max 100M).
If you add a question yourself, comment and I'll tip you the unique trader bonuses that I get from it.
If a question can't be resolved objectively, it will be resolved according to a poll.
Update 2025-26-01 (PST): - 2024 is the first calendar year that has reached more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.
(AI summary of creator comment)

Volume trend

$411

Jul 142d of dataJul 15

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Rules

Feel free to add answers!

If you don't want to add an answer because of the cost, suggest an answer in the comments and I'll tip you 5 mana/trader on your question (max 100M).
If you add a question yourself, comment and I'll tip you the unique trader bonuses that I get from it.
If a question can't be resolved objectively, it will be resolved according to a poll.
Update 2025-26-01 (PST): - 2024 is the first calendar year that has reached more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.
(AI summary of creator comment)