What are the current odds for What will be the impacts of php2shell in next 6 months?

Manifold Markets prices A US federal government server is compromised at 72.1% as of October 25, 2026.

What will be the impacts of php2shell in next 6 months

One-OffTech5mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

A US federal government server is compromised 72.1%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

+22.1 pts

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Stale

Oct 21, 26, 3:41 PM UTCApr 21, 27, 3:36 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market resolves based on negative outcomes attributed to CVE-2026-109618 / CVE-2026-109619 AKA 'php2shell'

I am allowing for a week to modify detailed criteria based on feedback.
In all cases, the outcome must have php2shell as its main/proximal cause.
"compromised" means that an attacker was able to steal user/company data OR modify the website OR cause monetary/health/other damages
The standard for resolution is credible reporting, I won't trade.
Only impacts reported up to the close date (2027-04-20) count.