Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 22, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 32.9%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleDec 13, 25, 4:15 AMDec 11, 26, 4:15 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes33%
Volume trend
$43Jul 174d of dataJul 22
Related Markets
The Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
$6.2KPragmata: 3%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Junior Eurovision Winner 2026
$1KCountry A: 50%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Grammy Winner: Best New Artist
$451.6Ella Langley: 83%KALSHI
KALSHIWill AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026
$230.3Yes: 4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the Oscars loosen rules on AI tool use by 2030?
$129Yes: 44.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill 007 First Light be nominated for Game of the Year at the Game Awards? (James Bond game from IO Studios)
$122.3Yes: 86%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds: Kane jumps to 41% in 2026 Ballon d'Or marketBlockchain.News
'The Odyssey' Director Chris Nolan: Young Audiences are Rejecting 'AI Slop'Decrypt
Character.AI Launches (c.ai) Series, Blending Microdramas and ChatBlockchain.News
Sheeran serenades England as Polymarket Golden Ball odds stay split at 50%Blockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.