The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.?

Manifold Markets prices No at 69.2% as of October 26, 2026.

When does The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030. resolve?

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030. is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.

How is The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030. settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Something we'd pay $10 million to avert.

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POLYMARKET

Paris curfew effectively lifted by which date?

• November 30-0.9pt98%
• November 7-3.8pt90%
• October 31-7.5pt66%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$62.6K

24h Vol

$23.6K

KALSHI

What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?

• Above 4.1 million98.5%
• Above 4.2 million97.5%
• Above 4.3 million-1.0pt94.5%

POLYMARKET

Cambridge Dictionary Word of the Year 2026 contains?

• agent18%
• lore8%
• maxx6%

+6 more outcomes

Total Vol

$9.6K

POLYMARKET

Merriam-Webster Word of the Year 2026 contains?

• agent15%
• larp13%
• maxx12%

+6 more outcomes

Total Vol

$8.7K

POLYMARKET

Oxford Word of the Year 2026 contains?

• agent14%
• lore10%
• maxx10%

+6 more outcomes

Total Vol

$6.3K

POLYMARKET

Lyon curfew effectively lifted by which date?

• November 7+6.7pt96%
• October 3185%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$25.1K

24h Vol

$5.9K

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