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Starship milestone dates megamarket

Starship milestone dates megamarket

TechOne-OffSpace5d

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Reach orbit by end of 2024

Reach orbit by end of 2024 0%

Leader of 137 outcomes

Forecasters

75

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 17 minutes ago

Oct 15, 24, 11:20 PMJul 31, 26, 9:30 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 20267%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Reach orbit means full circumnavigation around Earth.

Recover starship means mainly intact and no large deformation.
Things that might possibly be repairable like missing tiles and/or hole in flap and/or flap torn off is acceptable.
Refuel a booster must be at least 50% of amount of propellants intended to be transferred.
Also must be more than 1000 Kg of mass in case they do a very small scale test.
Catch booster on different tower means different from Pad A at Boca Chica used for the first catch.

Volume trend

$652

Jul 815d of dataJul 26

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Rules

Reach orbit means full circumnavigation around Earth.

Recover starship means mainly intact and no large deformation.
Things that might possibly be repairable like missing tiles and/or hole in flap and/or flap torn off is acceptable.
Refuel a booster must be at least 50% of amount of propellants intended to be transferred.
Also must be more than 1000 Kg of mass in case they do a very small scale test.
Catch booster on different tower means different from Pad A at Boca Chica used for the first catch.