Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current community forecast1 trillion or higher? 100%Leader of 23 outcomes
Forecasters
56
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 44 days ago
StaleMay 16, 26, 3:04 AMJun 12, 26, 7:30 PM
Probability Timeline
1 trillion or higher?100%
1.2 trillion or higher?100%
1.4 trillion or higher?100%
1.6 trillion or higher?100%
1.8 trillion or higher?100%
1.9 trillion or higher?100%
2 trillion or higher?100%
2.1 trillion or higher?100%
2.2 trillion or higher?0%
2.3 trillion or higher?0%
2.4 trillion or higher?0%
2.5 trillion or higher?0%
2.7 trillion or higher?0%
3 trillion or higher?0%
3.5 trillion or higher?0%
4 trillion or higher?0%
Larger market cap than Nvidia on the same day?0%
Larger market cap than Tesla on the same day?100%
Larger market cap than Alphabet Inc on the same day?0%
Larger market cap than Amazon on the same day?0%
Larger market cap than Broadcom on the same day?100%
Larger market cap than Meta Platforms (Facebook) on the same day?100%
Larger market cap than 0.5x Nvidias on the same day?0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
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100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· 1 trillion or higher?
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LimitlessBest overall83% match · verified | Low | 97% | — | $0 | $0 | 43 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 100% | — | — | — | 44 days ago |
Also available on Limitless
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
Closed
90.2%
2.3%
2.3%
+4 more outcomes
10 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$12.4K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSRules
Resolves N/a if no ipo by end of 2028.
- This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
- Google finance will be the source.
- Example: 1.4 trillion or more means 1,400,000,000,000.00 or more
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolves N/a if no ipo by end of 2028.
- This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
- Google finance will be the source.
- Example: 1.4 trillion or more means 1,400,000,000,000.00 or more