Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
May 27, 26, 6:39 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the S&P 500 Index (SPX) reaches or exceeds 8,000.00 at any point during regular trading hours in the calendar year 2026.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Source of Truth: The index value will be verified using official spot price data as tracked by Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) or Google Finance (.INX).
- Timing: The eligible window spans from January 1, 2026, through the close of the last trading session of the year on December 31, 2026.
- Scope: Only the spot price of the underlying index during regular trading hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM EST) will qualify.
