Current community forecast
<=10^50 90%Leader of 3 outcomes
<=10^50 90%Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 24, 7:53 PM UTCJan 1, 61, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves to all answers indicating the size, in number of nodes, of the smallest DAG (directed acyclic graph) node-labeled with chess positions that proves a win for black, in a game of chess where white starts without its queen.
- A chess position here includes data on whose turn it is, location of all pieces, castling rights, and en passant squares, but not data on 50-move rule timeouts.
- A DAG of positions proves a win for black if:
- The collection includes the initial position
- In every position with white to move, all possible subsequent positions after a move by white are also included, with an edge from the former to the latter.
- In every position with black to move, either there is a mate-in-one, or there is a unique edge from the position to another position, indicating the state after a legal move from black.
