Current community forecast
Yes 63.6%
Yes 63.6%Forecasters
48
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 17, 22, 5:04 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Manifold MarketsWill manifold reintroduce real money betting by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold Markets💰CoolFold Financial Advice #2: Suggest Investments for Me & Predict their ROI, invest & win real money!
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 28, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRules
I'll allow any reasonable type of scoring to demonstrate this, such as the ones described here.
- (With appropriate corrections for multiple-comparisons bias if someone tries a bunch of different metrics.)
- Proving causality would be next-to-impossible for something like this, so I'm only going to require that there be enough of a difference between the score before the change and the score afterwards that it seems plausible this was the cause.
