Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast10+ 57.4%+5.6%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 12, 26, 10:41 PMJul 19, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
10+57%
Volume trend
$245Jul 122d of dataJul 13
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How to sign up: go to the tournament page, hit Join, and enter your Manifold username — before July 18, 23:59 ET.
- Each "N+" answer resolves YES if the participant count on the tournament page is at least N when signups close July 18, and NO otherwise — each threshold resolves independently (e.g. 30 signups resolves 10+ and 25+ YES, 50+ and 100+ NO).
- Host reserves the right to exclude troll signups (spam accounts, obvious sockpuppets, signups made just to game this market) from the count.
- Note this market is self-referential: signing up moves its own answer.
- 🏆 This market is part of The Introductory Tournaments Tournament, the first-ever tournament on Manifold Tournaments — an unofficial site for running tournaments on top of Manifold markets.
- Rankings are by total profit across the tournament's markets, computed live on the tournament page.