Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 22, 2026, 7:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastYes 61.6%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes62%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FutuurBest overall87% match · auto | Low | 70% | — | $0 | $389.7 | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 62% | — | — | — | 4 days ago |
Also available on Futuur
Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?
5mo
70%
30%
31 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0.1
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$50Jul 88d of dataJul 22
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POLYMARKETActive in these topics
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.