Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastLionel Messi to score at least one goal 100%Leader of 445 outcomes
Forecasters
678
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
May 15, 26, 9:12 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill the 2026 FIFA World Cup gross more money than the 2022 FIFA World Cup (inflation adjusted)?
Manifold MarketsFrom which continent the 2026 Fifa World Cup Winner will come from?
Manifold Markets2030 FIFA World Cup Champion
Kalshi2027 FIFA Women's World Cup Champion
KalshiRules
20 var decisions overturned: only actual VAR interference count, automated offside checks are not included
- Most questions should be clear from official stats pages.
- I reserve the right to make calls on ambiguous cases
- Update 2026-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 15+ minutes of stoppage time refers to a single match, not aggregate across the tournament.
- Update 2026-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Goals by default exclude penalty shoot-out goals unless otherwise specified.
