Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastUSA to reach the Quarter-finals or further 0%Leader of 446 outcomes
Forecasters
671
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
May 15, 26, 9:12 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
100%
100%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner34%
Volume trend
$11Jul 819d of dataJul 26
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20 var decisions overturned: only actual VAR interference count, automated offside checks are not included
- Most questions should be clear from official stats pages.
- I reserve the right to make calls on ambiguous cases
- Update 2026-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 15+ minutes of stoppage time refers to a single match, not aggregate across the tournament.
- Update 2026-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Goals by default exclude penalty shoot-out goals unless otherwise specified.