Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 10:33 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Yes 57.5%
Yes 57.5%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Sep 28, 26, 3:21 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 6:33 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market refers to the tennis match between Shang Juncheng and Sebastian Baez in the ATP China Open, originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 01:00 UTC.
- This market will resolve to 'Shang Juncheng' if Shang Juncheng advances against Sebastian Baez.
- This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Shang Juncheng.
- If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
- If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
- If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Juncheng Shang vs. Sebastian Baez · Yes 58%
- Also available on Polymarket — China Open: Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez · Shang vs. Baez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 — Over 78%
