Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- No
- Recorded
- Jul 13, 2026, 8:16 PM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probability
No 98.4%
Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4.5K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 13 days ago
StaleJul 10, 26, 8:00 PMJul 13, 26, 8:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes1.6%
No83.5%
1.6%
98.4%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall70% match · auto | Low | 99% | — | $29.7K | $23.4K | 13 days ago | Open → |
 LimitlessThis page | Low | 98% | — | $4.5K | $0 | 13 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
S&P 500 Daily Up/Down
44.0 ptsClosed
Resolved
No (99%)
99%
-44.0pt1%
41 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidity
Total Vol$31K
24h Vol$29.7K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on July 13, 2026 is strictly higher than the price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on the most recent prior trading day.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down".
The price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) captured on July 10, 2026 was $754.93500.
Resolution source: Pyth SPY/USD price feed.
- Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used.
For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's price with the previous Friday's price, unless that Friday was a market holiday.
- In that case, it would compare against Thursday's price, or the next most recent trading day.
If S&P 500 ETF (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session on July 13, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down".
For a standard full trading session, the price for that trading day refers to the Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price published during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective price for that day.
If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which SPY is listed will be used to determine the price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting SPY during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$4.5kJul 122d of dataJul 13
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This market will resolve to "Up" if the price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on July 13, 2026 is strictly higher than the price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) on the most recent prior trading day.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down".
The price for S&P 500 ETF (Pyth SPY/USD) captured on July 10, 2026 was $754.93500.
Resolution source: Pyth SPY/USD price feed.
- Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used.
For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's price with the previous Friday's price, unless that Friday was a market holiday.
- In that case, it would compare against Thursday's price, or the next most recent trading day.
If S&P 500 ETF (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session on July 13, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down".
For a standard full trading session, the price for that trading day refers to the Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price published during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective price for that day.
If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which SPY is listed will be used to determine the price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting SPY during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.