Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 2, 2026, 2:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Yes 57.5%
Yes 57.5%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 2:00 PM UTCOct 3, 26, 11:08 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and Arthur Gea in the ATP China Open, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 11:05 UTC.
- This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Arthur Gea.
- This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Hubert Hurkacz.
- If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 23:59 UTC (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
- If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
- If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Hubert Hurkacz vs. Arthur Gea · Yes 57%
- Also available on Polymarket — China Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea · Completed Match 96%