KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Round of 16 (94%)
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, 3:26 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Round of 16
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
52%
Current implied probabilityRound of 16 89.5%+42.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$350.7K
Liquidity
$2.2M
High liquidityBid / Ask
86.0% / 94.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 22 days ago
StaleMay 8, 26, 12:00 AMJul 27, 26, 2:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Quarterfinals2%
Outright Winner1%
Semifinals3%
Round of 1694%
Runner-Up6%
89.5%
1.9%
0.9%
2.9%
2.9%
0.9%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Round of 16
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 94% | — | $350.7K | $2.2M | 22 days ago | |
 Polymarket88% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $42.3K | $0 | 21 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
World Cup: Mexico Stage of Elimination
46.5 ptsClosed
Resolved
16 (100%)
+46.5pt100%
0%
-3.3pt0%
+5 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$411.6K
24h Vol$42.3K
POLYMARKETRules
If Mexico is eliminated in the Group Stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the purposes of this Contract, if a team withdraws, forfeits or is disqualified at any point during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, their stage of elimination will be determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to withdrawal, forfeit or disqualification.
- For example, if a team withdraws after winning their Round of 32 match, the market titled "Round of 16" will resolve to Yes since that would be the next stage where they would have been eliminated had they continued competing.
- Note: If a team loses in the Semifinals, the market titled "Semifinals" will resolve to Yes, regardless of whether they win the third-place match.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.5k99.5%POLYMARKETWill Mexico win the World Cup? — NoMenacingTurtle22d ago
POLYMARKETWill Mexico win the World Cup? — NoMenacingTurtle22d agoVolume trend
$350.7kJul 25d of dataJul 6
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If Mexico is eliminated in the Group Stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the purposes of this Contract, if a team withdraws, forfeits or is disqualified at any point during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, their stage of elimination will be determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to withdrawal, forfeit or disqualification.
- For example, if a team withdraws after winning their Round of 32 match, the market titled "Round of 16" will resolve to Yes since that would be the next stage where they would have been eliminated had they continued competing.
- Note: If a team loses in the Semifinals, the market titled "Semifinals" will resolve to Yes, regardless of whether they win the third-place match.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.