PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 16 (100%)
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability16 100%+46.5ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$42.3K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+65.0 pts
Market data
Updated 20 days ago
StaleJun 7, 26, 4:59 PMJul 19, 26, 7:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Quarterfinals26%
Final7%
Champion4%
Other0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· 16
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall88% match · verified | Low | 94% | — | $350.7K | $2.2M | 21 days ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Low | 100% | — | $42.3K | $0 | 20 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Mexico: Stage of Elimination
42.0 ptsClosed
Resolved
Round of 16 (94%)
+42.0pt89.5%
-14.0pt2.9%
-4.0pt2.9%
+4 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3M
24h Vol$350.7K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Mexico is eliminated.
- If Mexico wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'.
- If Mexico is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Mexico based on the best available official information.
- If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.5k99.5%POLYMARKETWill Mexico win the World Cup? — NoMenacingTurtle22d ago
POLYMARKETWill Mexico win the World Cup? — NoMenacingTurtle22d agoVolume trend
$42.3kJul 26d of dataJul 7
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This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Mexico is eliminated.
- If Mexico wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'.
- If Mexico is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Mexico based on the best available official information.
- If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.