KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Democrat (99%)
Resolved: Sep 14, 2026, 6:38 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Democrat
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
91%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 14, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
ID / Identification47%
Afford / Affordable / Affordability80%
America First22%
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime33%
Working Class / Middle Class17%
Event does not qualify9%
AI / Artificial Intelligence19%
Biden76%
Terrorist / Terrorism22%
Taxpayer76%
Minnesota / Minneapolis59%
Economy / Economic34%
Medicare / Medicaid89%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline1%
California65%
Somali / Somalia / Somalian57%
2028 / Campaign45%
Election78%
DemocratWon
Food Stamp / SNAPLost
China / ChineseLost
Medicare / MedicaidLost
HealthcareLost
BidenLost
ElectionLost
TaxpayerLost
Radical LeftLost
ID / IdentificationLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
Economy / EconomicLost
Working Class / Middle ClassLost
Somali / Somalia / SomalianLost
Illegal AlienLost
2028 / CampaignLost
Minnesota / MinneapolisLost
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityLost
Event does not qualifyLost
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will JD Vance say during NYT DealBook Summit?
KalshiWhat will Trump say in November?
KalshiWhat companies will Trump say in November?
KalshiWhat countries will Trump say in November?
KalshiWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Congress pass sweeping deregulatory measures by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the remarks on the Trump Administration’s crackdown on fraud in Kansas City using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the remarks on the Trump Administration’s crackdown on fraud in Kansas City will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.