KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 48° or above (84%)
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 8:40 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 7:55 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
49° or above1%
48° or above84%
50° or above2%
47° or above98%
46° or above97%
43° or above0%
44° or above0%
45° or above0%
51° or above0%
52° or above0%
47° or aboveLost
46° or aboveLost
48° or aboveWon
49° or aboveLost
50° or aboveLost
43° or aboveLost
44° or aboveLost
45° or aboveLost
51° or aboveLost
52° or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Lowest temperature in New York City on Oct 21, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Oct 21, 2026?
KalshiWill the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 63 F on October 21, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)?
ForecastExWill the lowest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) be below 52 F on October 21, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest)?
ForecastExWill the highest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) exceed 61 F on October 21, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)?
ForecastExWill the lowest temperature in New York City (NYC)(LGA)(KLGA) be below 48 F on October 21, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest)?
ForecastExRules
If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 47.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Synoptic Data
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- 47° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 46.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 46° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 45.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 48° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 47.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 49° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 48.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 50° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 49.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 43° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 42.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 44° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 43.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 45° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 44.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 51° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 50.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 52° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 51.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
