KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 85° or above (22%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
86° or above1%
85° or above22%
87° or above3%
84° or above99%
83° or above99%
82° or above99%
80° or above0%
81° or above0%
88° or above0%
89° or above0%
84° or aboveLost
Before close: 96% ·
83° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
82° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
85° or aboveWon
Before close: 43% ·
87° or aboveLost
Before close: 2% ·
86° or aboveLost
Before close: 14% ·
80° or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
81° or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
88° or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
89° or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 26, 2026?
KalshiLowest temperature in Miami on Sep 26, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 27, 2026?
KalshiLowest temperature in Miami on Sep 27, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on September 27?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Miami on September 28?
PolymarketRules
If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Sep 26, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 79.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Synoptic Data
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology.
- Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Sep 26, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 80.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Sep 26, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 81.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Sep 26, 2026 at 1 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 82.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.