KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 86° or above (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
87° or above60%
88° or above2%
86° or above99%
85° or above93%
84° or above95%
83° or above99%
89° or above1%
82° or above99%
81° or above0%
90° or above0%
86° or aboveWon
Before close: 96% ·
85° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
84° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
83° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
82° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
87° or aboveLost
Before close: 35% ·
88° or aboveLost
Before close: 1% ·
89° or aboveLost
Before close: 1% ·
81° or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
90° or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 3, 2026?
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KalshiLowest temperature in Miami on Oct 4, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on October 4?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Miami on October 5?
PolymarketRules
If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 3, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 85.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Synoptic Data
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- 86° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 3, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 85.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 85° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 3, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 84.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 84° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 3, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 83.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 83° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 3, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 82.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 82° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 3, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 81.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 87° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 3, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 86.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 88° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 3, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 87.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 89° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 3, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 88.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 81° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 3, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 80.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 90° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 3, 2026 at 12 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 89.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.