KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 44° or above (66%)
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 9:10 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 7:55 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
44° or above66%
43° or above98%
42° or above99%
45° or above2%
39° or above0%
40° or above0%
41° or above0%
46° or above0%
47° or above0%
48° or above0%
42° or aboveLost
43° or aboveLost
44° or aboveWon
45° or aboveLost
39° or aboveLost
40° or aboveLost
41° or aboveLost
46° or aboveLost
47° or aboveLost
48° or aboveLost
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Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Chicago on Oct 21, 2026?
KalshiRules
If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 43.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- 42° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 41.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 43° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 42.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 44° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 43.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 45° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 44.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 39° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 38.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 40° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 39.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 41° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 40.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 46° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 45.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 47° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 46.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 48° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 21, 2026 at 4 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 47.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.