KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Talarico (99%)
Resolved: Sep 11, 2026, 2:00 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Talarico
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
79%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 1:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
China / Chinese1%
Iran / Iranian1%
Israel / Israeli1%
Socialist / Socialism15%
Election / Midterm99%
Talarico99%
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional99%
Trump99%
Border99%
Democrat99%
AI / Artificial Intelligence8%
Tax33%
TalaricoWon
Election / MidtermLost
Constitution / Constitutional / UnconstitutionalLost
TrumpLost
BorderLost
DemocratLost
Socialist / SocialismLost
China / ChineseLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
TaxLost
Iran / IranianLost
Israel / IsraeliLost
Event does not qualifyLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the RNC Midterm Convention using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Ted Cruz speaking in an official capacity.