KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
exes 61%Leader of 10 outcomes
exes 61%Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$1.5K
Low open interestMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Sep 29, 26, 4:45 PM UTCOct 19, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Tate McRae performs 'exes' at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the New York TimesThe Hollywood ReporterBillboardFoxThe Washington PostVictoria’s SecretVarietyAPRolling StonePitchfork
- A performance requires the performer to be physically present on stage and either sing, rap, or vocalize recognizable lyrics or melody from the song live, or play an instrument performing the recognizable melody, riff, or musical structure of the song live. Pre-recorded audio or video playback without simultaneous live contribution does not qualify. Medleys, mashups, and partial performances count as Yes. Guest appearances count if the specified performer actively participates in performing the song. If the event is postponed to a date before the deadline, the market remains open for the rescheduled event. If the event is cancelled entirely, rescheduled after the deadline, or the performer withdraws, the market resolves to No. Soundchecks and rehearsals do not count.
Rules for each outcome
- exes
- If Tate McRae performs 'exes' at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Just Keep Watching
- If Tate McRae performs 'Just Keep Watching' at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Miss possessive
- If Tate McRae performs 'Miss possessive' at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Purple lace bra
- If Tate McRae performs 'Purple lace bra' at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Sports Car
- If Tate McRae performs 'Sports Car' at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
- it's ok i'm ok
- If Tate McRae performs 'it's ok i'm ok' at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
- TIT FOR TAT
- If Tate McRae performs 'TIT FOR TAT' at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
- greedy
- If Tate McRae performs 'greedy' at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Revolving door
- If Tate McRae performs 'Revolving door' at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
- you broke me first
- If Tate McRae performs 'you broke me first' at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, then the market resolves to Yes.