KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 2 (99%)
Resolved: Oct 13, 2026, 3:24 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 399%
Above 699%
Above 593%
Above 729%
Above 2Won
Above 3Lost
Above 4Lost
Above 6Lost
Above 5Lost
Above 7Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?
KalshiOn the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
Manifold MarketsWill tropical storms in the Atlantic exceed 10 in 2026?
ForecastExWill tropical storms in the Atlantic exceed 9 in 2026?
ForecastExWill tropical storms in the Atlantic exceed 12 in 2026?
ForecastExAll-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If more than 2 named storms occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- If more than 3 named storms occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If more than 4 named storms occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If more than 5 named storms occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If more than 6 named storms occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If more than 7 named storms occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.