KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability88° or above 79.6%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
$1.5K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
77.0% / 86.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 27, 26, 2:00 PMJul 29, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
88° or above82%
Compare venues· 88° or above
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 82% | — | $1.9K | $1.5K | 18 minutes ago | |
 ForecastEx81% match · auto | Low | 88% | — | $90 | $60 | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on ForecastEx
Will the lowest temperature in Las Vegas (LAS)(KLAS) be below 91 F on July 28, 2026?
1d
88%
12%
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$90
24h Vol$90
FORECASTEXRules
If the minimum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 28, 2026, is less than 80° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLILAS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=vef, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Las Vegas, NV" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.9kJul 272d of dataJul 28
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If the minimum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 28, 2026, is less than 80° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLILAS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=vef, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Las Vegas, NV" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.